Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

نویسندگان

چکیده

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures transition the shift a low-carbon economy. Here, we present an integrated framework explore near-term (to 2030) longer-term 2050) risks, globally in specific regions, for range of plausible greenhouse gas temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels long-term warming. By 2050, deriving major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress crop duration reductions depend greatly on pathway. 2030, most sensitive stem economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several with 2 target demonstrates that also technological, policy socio-economic factors. There is balance pathway design between economic cost threats. This study provides comprehensive assess near- under various warming scenarios particular regions.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Nature Climate Change

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1758-6798', '1758-678X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x